We help you get 'The Right Timing.' Here's how:
Some Frequently Asked Questions
- What is Orthochronos™?
- How does regularly trading stocks stack up against long term investment in the market?
- What is technical analysis of stock market securities?
- How does this give me an advantage?
- How was this method developed?
- Is there a theory behind the new models?
- How did a background in Aerospace Engineering lead to this?
- So can the stock prices be predicted?
- How is the new technique different from existing time series models and indicators?
- Is this a complicated method to understand and follow?
- How has the technique been performing historically?
- Which stocks are available?
- Is this a get-rich-quick scheme?
- Can I purchase stocks through Orthochronos?
- Why do you limit the number of subscriptions?
- How much does it cost?
- How can I contact Orthochronos?
- Do I have to download and install any software?
- Do I need a credit card for signing up?
- What is Orthochronos™?
- Orthochronos is a revolutionary visual tool for technically minded stock traders and intelligent fundamental investors who want to time their trades right. Our charts bring to life the smooth oscillations hidden in the apparently erratic stock price fluctuations.
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- How does regularly trading stocks stack up against long term investment in the market?
- The recent tumble of the stock market has almost everyone worried about their 401Ks and retirement nest eggs. The credit crunch, collision of global markets and myriad of new factors have called into question the prudence of using stock portfolios as a means of wealth preservation. There is no guarantee that while you are close to retirement, the market wouldn't take a dive evaporating your life savings held as long term investment in what appeared once to be failsafe corporations and companies or superstar hedge and mutual funds.
- Insured bank accounts and treasury bonds seem to be the only available safe investments. But they are clearly not a means of multiplying your savings or to borrow Warren Buffet's words "making the capital work for you."
- No wonder, therefore, the majority of professionals are considering trading stocks as a means of making their savings create a reasonable rate of return. With a little homework and few hours each week, an initial amount of few thousand dollars can produce a substantial percentage of profit through regular 'buying-selling' or 'short selling-buying to cover' of stocks. To avoid "gambling" instincts and potential catastrophic crashes, it is wise to stack away a good part of the profits into safe paper like treasury bonds or bank accounts, while, at the same time, maintaining a compounding capital in play.
- Besides, handling your own money with your own sense of discipline and responsibility and making it grow is undoubtedly a very rewarding experience.
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- What is technical analysis of stock market securities?
- There are two types of approaches to the forecasting of stock market security performance: (a) analysis of company fundamentals and (b) technical analysis of stock performance. The first approach examines the financial and business fundamentals of a company, such as business model, profitability, price-to-earnings ratio, and the like. The second approach looks at the stock performance in the form of a stock-price-versus-time graph, without necessarily any consideration of the company fundamentals. It treats the stock performance as a mathematical time series and can thus apply the pertinent mathematical techniques.
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- How does this give me an advantage?
- Unlike Fourier analysis and digital filtering techniques, our rigorous mathematical back-engine extracts consistent cycles helping you anticipate and profit from near-certain market swings, reliably and repeatedly. You can learn more about the unique advantages of our model in the answer to, How is the new technique different from existing time series models and indicators?
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- How was this method developed?
- The Orthochoronos system was developed over the course of seven years by Dr. Othon Rediniotis, a professor of aerospace engineering, and one of his PHD candidates, Arun Surendran, who also both happen to be enthusiastic stock investors.
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- Is there a theory behind the new models?
- Over the last seven years, and inspired by the theory of turbulence in aerodynamics and non-linear dynamical systems, in general, we developed a theory (which we call the theory of hierarchical resonance), that looks at the stock market as a highly non-linear dynamical system and models the flow of energy between its different timescales (minutes, hours, days, months).
- The theory models trader/investor psychology on multiple timescales and how market behavior in one timescale affects behavior in the other timescales. We then casted the theory in the proper mathematics, tested it and improved it over the last three years and the result is the present site. Just like in turbulence, for example, we believe that the stock market behavior is not chaotic and that it has a great deal of predictability. Some of the physical aspects of our approach are discussed below.
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- How did a background in Aerospace Engineering lead to this?
- Even simple observation of stock price graphs can reveal dominant patterns. Over the years, such patterns have been identified and named, for example the "head and shoulders" pattern, the "dead cat bounce" pattern, the "double bottoms" pattern, etc. In our work, we refer to such re-occurring, dominant patterns as "coherent structures", a term borrowed from the theory of turbulence in aerodynamics.
- Just like in turbulence, such coherent structures are simply the result of underlying laws (physical, psychological, financial, etc.). However, these laws are often very hard to model and express in a deterministic manner, due to their complexity/nonlinearity and sensitivity to initial and boundary conditions. Therefore, we often resort to the next best thing, which is a phenomenological model of a system's behavior.
- Consider human behavior for example. What determines an individual's behavior is a series of physical and chemical laws: for example laws governing neural networks and neurotransmitter behavior, laws about the transfer of energy-electrical signals in the nervous system, heat production and transfer from metabolic processes, mass transfer, e.g. blood flow- in the body, hormonal secretions, protein production, etc., along with the accompanying initial conditions (genetic heritage) and boundary conditions (the stimuli from the individual's environment). However, these laws are so complex and often so sensitive to initial and boundary conditions that the individual's behavior is (to-date) impossible to deterministically model. Nevertheless, an individual's behavior exhibits "coherent structures" which are repeated and often predictable, for example, anger, compassion, hunger, fear, hope, etc. Therefore, in this sense, psychology can be thought of as a phenomenological study of these coherent structures in order to model and predict human behavior.
- Now consider the theory of turbulence in aerodynamics. Until a few decades ago the task of modeling turbulence and predicting its behavior seemed so overwhelmingly complicated that it seemed impossible. "Coherent Structures" was the most important tool in turbulence modeling and prediction. This was a phenomenological approach. Today, with the dramatic advances in computational power, we almost don't need to bother with coherent structures any more. Why? Because our understanding of turbulence has gone deeper; we have modeled the basic physical processes that give birth to these coherent structures. We can simulate a turbulent flow on powerful computers and a flow that to the naked eye seemed random and chaotic can now be computationally modeled and predicted with unprecedented accuracy. Does this mean that a few hundred years from now we might have accurate computational models for human behavior with predictive capabilities? We will not venture an answer but it is certainly food for thought.
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- So can the stock prices be predicted?
- Modeling the stock market is in complexity somewhere between the two previous examples. It has important similarities to both examples. It exhibits coherent structures, which by definition make it non-random, although a price-versus-time graph might seem random/chaotic to the naked eye. There are underlying laws that govern stock market behavior - financial, physical, psychological, etc. They are simply, to date, extremely complicated to thoroughly and accurately model.
- In our work, we believe we have pushed the state-of-the-art one step closer to that goal. These coherent/periodic structures if properly extracted/identified can in turn be used to model a stock's behavior to the point that a seemingly random price graph can be modeled with only a handful of quasi-periodic, well-behaved oscillators, each one of them with their own evolution dynamics which can in turn be used for forecasting.
- In our work, in order to extract/identify these coherent structures and derive their evolution dynamics, we have borrowed principles and techniques from a wide range of science disciplines, with emphasis on mathematics, physics and engineering. After seven years of development and testing, we believe we are at a good place.
- But this does not mean that we foresee future events or that major incidents have absolutely no impact on the market. We emphasize here that the quality and temporal evolution behavior of the intraday oscillators is better than that of the daily oscillators, for very good reasons: Intraday trading is a lot more based on human emotions than long-term trading/investing. And inversely, long-term trading is significantly more affected by the fundaments than intraday trading is. Human emotions and behavior have significantly more "coherent structures" than the behavior of a company's fundamentals does. Since our approach is technical and does not take into account the fundamentals, surprises in fundamentals, such as surprises in quarterly reports or FED meetings, can cause discontinuity in the temporal evolution of the oscillators in the form of slope discontinuity. However, not all quarterly reports cause discontinuity; only those which have surprises. In fact, it is very likely that a quarterly report will go unnoticed, in the behavior of the oscillators. But to be on the safe side, we do not recommend that you use the graphs for that specific stock, from a day before its quarterly report to a day after that.
- It is also safer to minimize your market participation or stay away from the market during unprecedented unexpected events of great national or global significance.
- However in the case of general news reports, we're always amused by the effort of most of the analysts to retrofit market behavior to a "favorite" cause of their choice. A cursory glance at the headlines of major financial websites or publications gives us plenty of examples of how frequently the market seems to "brush off" bad news, rise "despite" horrible data, "retain gloom" in the face of uplifting information or "plunge even as" good news pours in.
- A recent case in point was the day when record unemployment numbers were posted and yet the NASDAQ posted gains of over 3% in the face of such grave news. Watch this video which shows the behavior of our models during that day. Click on the button at the bottom right of the video to watch it in full screen
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- How is the new technique different from existing time series models and indicators?
- In our research, it became obvious, relatively early on, that only mathematical treatment of a stock's movements as a time series, in "black box" approaches and in the absence of a physical model, was not going to achieve our predictability performance goals. To address that, we spent the next few years modeling trader/investor psychology as a highly non-linear dynamical system.
- Just like any other dynamical system, stock market behavior exhibits "resonance", at different time scales. This means that a relatively small excitation in one time scale causes rather significant movements in an "adjacent" timescale. An analogy can be found in the familiar statement: "A butterfly flapping its wings in Africa can cause a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico". A butterfly can only have such an effect through a process of hierarchical resonance of cascading time and length scales.
- Subsequently, we casted the model into the appropriate mathematical framework, a process that was not without challenges either. After a while, it became evident that uniqueness and orthogonality of the representation/model were restrictive rather than helpful. Uniqueness would be a pertinent issue, if the future were predetermined. We have, at least circumstantial, evidence (including the second law of thermodynamics and the uncertainty principle) that the future is not predetermined, at least not in its details. Bifurcations can and do happen. Moreover, orthogonality was placing undue restrictions to the adaptability of the model. In terms of predictability, the model and its oscillator components, need neither be unique nor orthogonal. All they need to have is a smooth and continuous evolution in time. The culmination of our efforts is a model with the following characteristics:
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- Our oscillators are not just indicators. They are components of the price movement. In other words, the sum of our oscillators is the price time history.
- Our oscillators are constructed such that they have a smooth and continuous evolution in time, with a large degree of predictability.
- Each oscillator represents a distinct dominant period which in turn represents a physical "coherent structure" in investor psychology and behavior. This "multi-resolution" allows not only for forecasting over different time scales, but also for the setting of several "safety levels" ALL of which have to fail in order to lose money.
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- Is this a complicated method to understand and follow?
- No, it is not.
- Making money in the market is not very easy. Our system does not give you direct buy, sell or short recommendations. It gives you reliable indications of trends and changes in trader/investor psychology and thus price behavior. The 11 digit alerts draw your attention to charts exhibiting potential. The alerts also provide statistical information about how the strategies behind that alert have performed in the past on that stock.
- Our short but detailed manual helps you master our simple three step trading philosophy: direction, safety & trigger.
- The alerts are machine generated. With a quick and easy safety inspection of the chart, a manual trader can do much better than the machine. However, as our simulations discussed in the manual show, even blindly following the alerts can lead to impressive capital growth over time.
- Also, after you understand the meaning of our oscillators, you may develop your own trading strategy. With practice and discipline, there is nothing stopping you from becoming a better user of this tool than the engineers behind its creation.
- Our illustrations contained in our quick reference tutorial explain the different oscillators and other indicators contained in the charts. Videos discussing the evolution of different sample trading strategies are available to subscribers in the Help section. These strategies and more like them are what lie behind our alerts.
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- How has the technique been performing historically?
- On the site, we provided automated alerts, based on some simple strategies, that indicate trading opportunities shaping up in a chart. Both entry and exit alerts are provided. By quickly studying the chart, the user can determine whether it is safe to take the opportunity. Let us look at some examples of the historical performance of these automated alerts if they are blindly followed.
- The graph below shows the compounded growth of $10,000 if only the alerts based on a single strategy on the stock ADSK were taken. Keep in mind that our site provides well over 200 alerts a month for the basket of our stocks.
- Or consider the graph below for the stock RFMD again blindly following alerts of a single strategy over time.
- Now consider the historical performance of the alerts of a single strategy applied to stock BRC.
- The performance shown in the chart above may not look that impressive compared to the earlier examples. However, we must understand that the actual time spent in the market for this strategy of BRC is significantly low. We can see that in the graph below which shows the compounded growth plotted against actual time spent in the market.
- So in actuality the money was in the market for only close to 25 trading days. With that in mind, the 30% return is indeed impressive.
- We have several strategies operating on the stocks generating alerts of different types. The alerts also provide all the important statistics like trade and profit ratio, average profit, average trade duration etc for the particular strategy in the alert number itself. With a little human intervention, performance of based on the automated alerts can be significantly improved.
- You can learn all about the automated alerts and chart reading in our manual. More examples of historical performance can also periodically updated in the manual.
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- Which stocks are available?
- We represent the NASDAQ composite using the ticker symbol COMP. This and the other stocks currently available on Orthochronos are listed below. Please note that this list will periodically change as stocks are added or removed from the system.
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- AAPL
- ADSK
- AKS
- ALTR
- ALV
- AMAT
- AMGN
- AMKR
- AMSG
- ANF
- AON
- APH
- ARG
- ATML
- ATW
- BBBY
- BBY
- BRC
- BRCD
- CAT
- CBRL
- CEDC
- CME
- CMN
- CMTL
- COH
- COMP
- CPRT
- CRNT
- CRS
- CSCO
- CVA
- CVS
- DD
- FCS
- GTI
- HBAN
- HLIT
- IDTI
- INFA
- JAKK
- KCG
- MKSI
- MT
- MTZ
- MXIM
- NVLS
- ORCL
- PWR
- RFMD
- RHI
- SIMG
- STMP
- SWKS
- TQNT
- TXN
- WFR
- X
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- Is this a get-rich-quick scheme?
- Absolutely not! Orthochronos is strictly a mathematical analysis system designed to help you make more informed trading decisions. The decisions are fully yours to make and we try to expose as much data as we can for your benefit.
- We do not encourage high risk investing. In fact our fundamental premise is: The lower the risk the higher the pay-off!
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- Can I purchase stocks through Orthochronos?
- Orthochronos is not a stock broker. We provide our customers access to charts of our mathematical analysis system in order to help them make more informed trading decisions.
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- Why do you limit the number of subscriptions?
- The nature of the Orthochronos system requires that we limit the number of people able to act on the information at any given time. If too many people are benefiting from our graphs, the behavior of the stock price could be altered and the effectiveness of our system could be affected.
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- How much does it cost?
- You can get complete access to our website for just $100 per month. With well over 200 alerts in a month, it works out as a great deal at less than 50 cents per alert for you.
- But NOW as an introductory offer you can get our service for just $49.99 per month. While signing up use the Promo Code: FALL2010
- You still get the 60-day free trial period. Your credit card will be charged for our services in a monthly cycle. If by any reason, you are not satisfied with our service, you can cancel your subscription at any time.
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- How can I contact Orthochronos?
- As a measure against spammers, we do not publish any email addresses on the website.
- If you need help with your Orthochronos account or have a question about billing please use the contact form in the Help section.
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- Do I have to download and install any software?
- No. Orthochronos does not require any software to download or install, just a web browser and the Adobe Flash plugin. If you do not have the Adobe Flash plugin, you can obtain it here.
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- Do I need a credit card to sign up?
- No. You can try our website absolutely free for 60 days. After the trial period, you will be prompted to enter your credit card information to continue your subscription.
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